Prediction Markets
Trade the outcome of real events from inside TRUE, on deep external liquidity, funded from the same balance as everything else.
What it is
Take a position on whether something happens. An election result, a sports fixture, a macro print, a crypto milestone. Each market is a yes-or-no question with a price between 0 and 1 that reads directly as the market’s probability: 0.62 means the crowd is pricing 62%.
If the event happens, YES settles at 1. If not, it settles at 0. Your profit is the gap between what you paid and where it settles.
Where the liquidity comes from
TRUE does not invent these markets or make prices in them. Orders route to established prediction market liquidity, which is what makes the prices worth trading: they reflect everyone in that market, not just TRUE’s users.
What TRUE provides is the part that is normally painful. One balance, funded the same way as the rest of your account, with the bridging handled rather than left to you.
Fees
A fee is charged on profit, and you see the exact amount quoted before you place the bet. A position that loses pays no profit fee.
Settlement
Markets settle against the real-world outcome. When the underlying market resolves, your position resolves with it and the proceeds land in your balance. TRUE does not adjudicate outcomes and cannot overrule a resolution.
A market at 0.90 is not a sure thing, it is a market that pays 11% if it is right and loses everything if it is not. Prediction markets are at their most dangerous when they look most obvious, because that is exactly when people size up.
Availability
Prediction markets are not available everywhere. Access depends on where you are, and the app checks before it lets you trade. This is a legal constraint, not a product decision, and we would rather tell you plainly than let you build a position you cannot keep.
Honest limitations
- Liquidity varies enormously by market. A major election is deep, a minor fixture is not, and the spread will tell you which one you are in.
- Resolution is the external market’s, not ours. If you disagree with an outcome, we cannot change it.
- A settled market cannot be exited. If you want out, you exit before resolution.
See also
- Fees and Rebates.
- Non-Custodial by Design — what TRUE is, and what it never holds.